Eduardo writes the following in a recent blog: “I stumbled by chance upon another set of predictions, this time for US energy consumption, all of the issued in the 70′s with 2000 as time horizon. Some were more accurate than others, but there is clearly a bias.”

Clearly, the actual energy consumption is lower than all the predictions. While still dire, not as bad as we feared.

What I find fascinating about this are two things.

1. Our ability to predict is often flawed based on assumptions that change. For example, one assumption that people often have is that the world will not change and that our behavior will not change. Well, both often do. So the trend for today may not continue tomorrow.

2. The efforts we made in the 70s to curtail energy consumption did indeed pay off. So too will the efforts we make today. While we still have an energy crisis our efforts to change the pattern are worthy.

From a leadership perspective, this information is quite profound. I believe that they teach us that our efforts to change, while they may not be immediately apparent, in the long run, they pay off. Do not assume that things will not change. Instead, apply your efforts to change and stick with them. The payoff is there. If you need instant gratification as a leader and expect people to change immediately, you are lost and you are likely to be dissatisfied. If, on the other hand, you are diligent and patient, people change, patterns change, trends change. You just have to stick with it.

For more information about the above graph, see the following blog:

http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/2010/04/value-of-long-term-predictions.html